050
ACUS11 KWNS 240026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240026
KSZ000-COZ000-240230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO AND NORTHWEST KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313...
VALID 240026Z - 240230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...PRIMARY SUPERCELL IN NORTHEAST COLORADO MAY PERSIST TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, WHILE AN ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL SHOULD BECOME
SUSTAINED ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS
BORDER. SPORADIC BRIEF TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...GOES MDS FIRST ILLUSTRATED DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF AN INTENSE SUPERCELL OVER NORTHEAST CO. THIS TEMPORARILY
DISRUPTED THE EARLIER INTENSE MESOCYCLONE, AND NOW APPEARS TO HAVE
HAD A HANDOFF TO ANOTHER MESOCYCLONE ON ITS SOUTHWEST FLANK. COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING MLCIN WITH EASTERN
EXTENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS CELL SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST BUT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE LIMITED BY OUTFLOWS EMANATING FROM DOWNSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER EAST-CENTRAL CO. THIS SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY
STRUGGLED THUS FAR, BUT APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING TO A COUPLE
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. ONE OR BOTH OF THESE COULD
BECOME THE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS GIVEN
UNIMPEDED INFLOW OF HIGHER THETA-E.
..GRAMS.. 05/24/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40520287 40210253 39790222 39280149 38760151 38330172
38370227 38580279 38930296 39270297 39990320 40400326
40520287
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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