245
ACUS03 KWNS 240729
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
AT MID-LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. EARLY IN THE DAY,
WARM-ADVECTION-RELATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORNING
STORMS WILL HAMPER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY FURTHER
NORTH INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS. THE EFFECTIVE COLD
FRONT COULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
THE ARK-LA-TEX. TO THE SOUTH, MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. AS SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE,
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES NEAR THE FRONT, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON, DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH SCENARIO FROM
RUN TO RUN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF AT 00Z/MONDAY WITHIN PARTS OF THIS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR ABOVE 30 KNOTS WITH 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. SINCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS, A MIXED MODE WOULD BE EXPECTED. NEAR
INSTABILITY MAXIMA, SUPERCELLS COULD FORM AND HAVE A LARGE HAIL
THREAT. IN OTHER AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LESSENED, SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS WITH SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE FAVORED.
..SOUTHEAST
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THIS AIRMASS DURING THE DAY,
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO FORM ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES
AND ALONG FOCUSED ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY BECOME STEEP IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH MULTICELLS THAT
BECOME LOCALLY INTENSE.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2025
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