902
FNUS22 KWNS 241948
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SOUTHWEST WINDS AMID A VERY DRY AIR MASS,
ALLOWING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH COUPLED WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PUSHING FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE MANZANO RANGE IN CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE FUEL ERCS ARE AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
..WILLIAMS.. 05/24/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0129 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO ON D2/SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. A VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND
5-10 PERCENT BY THE AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL WINDS MAINLY IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN, WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL WINDS. AS SUCH, AN ELEVATED
DELINEATION WAS MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK. THE ELEVATED WAS
EXTENDED INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAIN REGION IN ARIZONA, WHERE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIMES ARE NOTED AND RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ONGOING.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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