393
ACUS11 KWNS 242153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242152
ALZ000-MSZ000-242245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 242152Z - 242245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM OF WW317.
DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
ONGOING AND INTENSIFYING ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW. A FEW
INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AROUND 1" HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAINTENANCE OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
DOWNSTREAM OF WW317. THIS LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE BETTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH, THUS BETTER FORCING AND SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION, OUTFLOW HAS MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS LINE OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE LINE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MS INTO SOUTHERN AL REMAINS HOT AND
UNSTABLE, WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. SHOULD THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LINE BE ABLE MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL, THE DOWNSTREAM
WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED TO COVER THIS RISK. RECENT
CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LINE MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. AS SUCH, WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THIS AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR DOWNSTREAM THREAT.
..THORNTON.. 05/24/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 31528949 31938940 32368921 32568907 32798887 32998865
33138847 33158846 33258837 33398803 33368754 33328676
33168623 32688576 32178552 31648555 31138589 31118630
31058704 31078770 31088821 31138875 31208904 31328926
31528949
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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