269
ACUS11 KWNS 242347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242346
COZ000-250115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318...
VALID 242346Z - 250115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...AN EARLIER STORM CLUSTER HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A
SUPERCELL NORTHEAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
RECENT REDEVELOPMENT NOTED FARTHER WEST, TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
DENVER. CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR FAILED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE, LIKELY DUE TO STRONGER CINH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
HOWEVER, CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE FAVORABLE POST-FRONTAL
REGIME MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME UPSCALE GROWTH, AND A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY EMERGE AND PERSIST
FARTHER EAST INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
PRIOR TO ANY CLUSTERING, MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EARLY
THIS EVENING CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE, WITH A THREAT OF HAIL,
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
..DEAN.. 05/24/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 39820531 39830460 39550348 39300288 38930277 38600334
38550440 38640520 38960584 39620579 39820531
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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