491
ACUS01 KWNS 250551
SWODY1
SPC AC 250550
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A RISK OF SEVERE ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHERN ALABAMA
SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FAVORS DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE-NORTHWESTERN OK BY 18Z. THERE
MAY BE A PROPENSITY FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO SETTLE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST, ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS PRE-DAWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EVOLVING WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE THAT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF THE PERIOD. IF AN MCS MATURES
OVER EASTERN KS/MO IT WOULD LIKELY TURN AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT, THOUGH SOME HAIL
COULD BE NOTED.
OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC FRONT
SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL
OCCUR ACROSS FAR WEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE
BREACHED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
READILY DEVELOP ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT, AS WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. ADDITIONALLY, 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL A FEW DEGREES AND CINH SHOULD BE
WEAKER. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SEASONALLY HIGH BUOYANCY FAVOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS EASTERN NM/SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN OK BY 21Z, THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO THE EVENING AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS INTO THIS REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL
IS POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS, BUT A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY
ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. IF AN MCS MATURES, AS EXPECTED, THEN SEVERE WINDS
MAY BECOME MORE COMMON DOWNSTREAM. SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO BE
NOTED WITH SUPERCELLS.
..DARROW/THORNTON.. 05/25/2025
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