818
ACUS03 KWNS 250719
SWODY3
SPC AC 250718
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO
THE OZARKS ON TUESDAY, AS FLOW REMAINS PRIMARY FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY,
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS MOIST AIRMASS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE, AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST. MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT THE MLCAPE COULD PEAK AROUND 4000 J/KG ACROSS PART OF
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR, THEN SOME OF THE CELLS COULD EXHIBIT ROTATION NEAR OR WITHIN
THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND SEVERE
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHEAST
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS ON
TUESDAY, AS FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REMAINS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. AT
THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
THE SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. MODEL FORECASTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE COULD PEAK IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BECOME STEEP AS
SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
MULTICELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2025
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