952
ACUS48 KWNS 250854
SWOD48
SPC AC 250853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
..DISCUSSION
..WEDNESDAY/DAY 4 AND THURSDAY/DAY 5
A MID-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE SOME AREAS
COULD MODERATELY DESTABILIZE. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT WEAK, SHOULD COULD MARGINALIZE THE SEVERE THREAT IN MOST
AREAS.
ON THURSDAY, THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES, AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO CREATE ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY
AREAS WITH A POTENTIALLY GREATER RISK.
..FRIDAY/DAY 6 TO SUNDAY/DAY 8
FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE, OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BEHIND THIS TROUGH,
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE, A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IS
FORECAST REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
FOR THIS REASON, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2025
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