183
ACUS11 KWNS 251024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251024
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321...
VALID 251024Z - 251200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LOCAL WATCH
EXTENSIONS MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON SHORT TERM TRENDS.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS HAS
MOSTLY REMAINED SUB-SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A RECENT
MEASURED GUST TO 88 MPH IN HODGEMAN COUNTY KS WAS NOTED AS AN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL WITHIN THE LINE INTENSIFIED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT, AND ALONG THE MUCAPE GRADIENT ORIENTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK. SPORADIC SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST, AN ORGANIZED, BUT ELEVATED CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ATOP THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY REMAINED SUB-SEVERE, BUT
EARLIER PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. A STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS DOWNSTREAM,
AND SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
DEPENDING ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS, LOCAL EXTENSIONS IN TIME TO WW 321,
OR A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, THOUGH THIS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
..LEITMAN.. 05/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 38499978 37929712 36739499 36249399 35829350 35509347
35279363 35199388 35229438 35379535 35649611 36479728
36739867 36839914 37100011 37240053 37510072 38499978
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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