812
ACUS11 KWNS 251754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251753
TXZ000-252000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS/CAPROCK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251753Z - 252000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CAPROCK (130-330PM CDT/1830-2030Z). A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOON ONCE THE CAP HAS ERODED AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY OR IMMINENT.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWELLING/TOWERING
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/CAPROCK, WHICH IS LOCATED
IN THE VICINITY OF A WIND SHIFT THAT ARCS GENERALLY WESTWARD FROM
SOUTHWEST OK TO THE I-27 CORRIDOR BETWEEN AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK. A
TRIPLE POINT IS ANALYZED NEAR PLAINVIEW WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
RESERVOIR OF 65-70 DEG F DEWPOINTS IS LOCATED IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
I-27 EASTWARD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS EAST OF THE CAPROCK.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND
90 DEG F NEAR LUBBOCK AND INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT
NEAR THE TX/SOUTHWEST OK BORDER.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE EROSION OF THE REMAINING
APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS
EAST OF THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE WIND SHIFT. ONCE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OCCURS, A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (3500-4500
J/KG MLCAPE) WILL RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LARGE VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WILL ACT TO PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR MODERATE MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND FAVOR SUPERCELLS
EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE LIFE CYCLE. THE VERY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES WILL PROMOTE LARGE TO GIANT HAIL GROWTH. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW NEAR AND BEHIND THE MODIFIED WIND SHIFT WILL AUGMENT
SRH/ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING SOME TORNADO RISK. AS ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER WITH SEVERE
GUSTS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT MID-LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
..SMITH/GUYER.. 05/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33500028 33510073 34270183 34530185 34810167 34790135
34350082 34050019 33740006 33500028
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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