659
ACUS11 KWNS 251838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251838
OKZ000-TXZ000-252015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251838Z - 252015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS DURING THE PAST HOUR
HAVE SHOWN A SWELLING CUMULUS FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF A WIND SHIFT
AND FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OK. A VERY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIRMASS IS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 74-76 DEG F
RANGE. HEATING OF THIS MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN
3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH ERODING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH
A FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER OK, 30-35 KT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 4-6 KM LAYER, PER KTLX VAD DATA,
COUPLED WITH WEAK EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTIVE SCENARIO/SETUP IS LARGELY MESOSCALE
DEPENDENT AND VOID OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BEFORE CLUSTERING OF STORMS EVENTUALLY OCCURS TOWARDS EVENING.
SEVERE GUSTS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD LATER THIS EVENING, IN
ADDITION TO SOME LINGERING HAIL/LOW TORNADO RISK.
..SMITH/GUYER.. 05/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35959747 35579678 35169585 34659568 34309578 34229636
34329732 34299796 34159866 34529927 35149931 35719900
36059788 35959747
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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