578
ACUS03 KWNS 251914
SWODY3
SPC AC 251913
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY, WITH
MODEST WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES,
LIMITING NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN AT THE SURFACE.
A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY FROM
MUCH OF TX EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES, WITH AN EFFECTIVE
EAST-WEST BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH EACH DAY DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS AND OUTFLOWS. SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ROUGHLY FROM
NORTHEAST TX INTO TN TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOWS SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, AIDING NEW DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT.
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
FARTHER WEST, SEVERE STORMS CHANCES APPEAR GREATER, AS EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BRING A MOIST AIR MASS FAR WESTWARD INTO A REGION OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG, THE
COMBINATION OF DEEP LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND GOOD HIGH LEVEL FLOW
MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS IN CLUSTERS, WITH HAIL AND WIND
POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG AND OVER 3000 J/KG MUCAPE.
..JEWELL.. 05/25/2025
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