464
ACUS11 KWNS 251915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251915
FLZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-252115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...ATLANTIC COAST PORTIONS OF SC AND GA INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251915Z - 252115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MULTIPLE SEA-BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS OR
SPORADIC HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1915 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTS OF GA AND SC, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DRIVEN LARGELY BY DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCALIZED
CONFLUENCE ALONG TYPICAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES, A FEW STRONGER
MULTICELLS/CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT, CONVECTION HAS BEEN LARGELY
UNORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS SUCH. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERING MAY SUPPORT STRONGER COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH TIME.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS AND WET MICROBURSTS
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS (~1.8-2 INCHES) AIR MASS. SPORADIC HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GIVEN AROUND 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. WHILE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE, THE
LACK OF BROADER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SUGGESTS THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE
TRANSIENT/ISOLATED. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
..LYONS/GUYER.. 05/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 26198008 26448128 27698224 29998239 31268225 32178190
32308123 32148085 31538121 30648140 29188098 27358026
26198008
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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