942
ACUS11 KWNS 251924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251924
NMZ000-252130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251924Z - 252130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY FOCUS NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING EAST ATOP THE ESCARPMENT/PLAINS. LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS OVER
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND A SWELLING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEG F WITH
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IMPLY 750-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. A BELT OF 35-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB
FLOW WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS DEVELOP/MATURE INTO
SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS AND POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. SEVERE GUSTS COULD
BECOME MORE PREVALENT IF/ONCE STORMS CLUSTER AND CONGEAL EAST OF
I-25 DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESSEN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
..SMITH/GUYER.. 05/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35460543 36610471 36790446 36720404 36410383 35130441
34890486 35050533 35460543
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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