126
ACUS11 KWNS 260004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260003
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-260130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AR...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS/AL...EXTREME
SOUTHERN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 322...324...
VALID 260003Z - 260130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 322, 324
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
TIME. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE.
DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHEAST AR INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST
TN, WITH SOME INCREASE IN STRONGER CELLS NOTED AHEAD OF THE LINE
INTO NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN AL. MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY IS IN
PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE, ALONG/SOUTH OF AN
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
RATHER MODEST, BUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND EVIDENCE
OF A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL, A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. A SWATH OF MORE CONCENTRATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY BOWING SEGMENTS CAN EVOLVE WITHIN THE
BROADER LINEAR STRUCTURE.
AHEAD OF THE LINE, EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO, WITH A
THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY STRONGER CELLS MERGE
INTO THE BROADER CONVECTIVE LINE. WW 324 HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER
THE SHORT-TERM THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF AL. NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING, IF TRENDS SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT
INTO LATE TONIGHT AS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 05/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33759149 34358994 35228870 35168723 34928591 33908546
33468586 32288794 32229042 32549116 32839148 33269176
33399174 33759149
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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