054
ACUS11 KWNS 260225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260225
OKZ000-TXZ000-260430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0925 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 260225Z - 260430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM OF WW325 AND
WW327.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS
OF 02Z. POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH TO AN MCS FEATURE HAS BEEN PROGGED
IN GUIDANCE, BUT THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR. NONETHELESS,
RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION WOULD SUGGEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS THAT STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THESE CLUSTERS HAVE PRODUCED GUSTS
UP TO 80 MPH. THE CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA HAS ALSO
SHOWN BETTER FORWARD PROPAGATION AND WIND SIGNAL ON RADAR OVER THE
LAST 30-45 MINUTES. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION, A STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND DOWNSTREAM OF WW325
AND WW327 AND A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
TO COVER THIS THREAT.
..THORNTON/MOSIER.. 05/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32379940 33229887 34689737 34799642 34529581 33839591
32839593 31689813 31999913 32379940
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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