433
ACUS11 KWNS 261558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261557
MSZ000-LAZ000-261800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL LA...SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261557Z - 261800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
SEEMINGLY EXISTS IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH MIDDAY. THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF PRIOR
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY, BUT THE PROSPECT FOR DAMAGING
GUSTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...RADAR/VISIBLE-SATELLITE MOSAIC SHOWS A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEAST AR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL LA. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE DRAPED FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MS WESTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL
LA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S
DEG F WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS, AND RAIN-COOLED TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST LA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MS.
AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FILTERED HEATING THROUGH A
THIN CIRRUS CANOPY AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL ACT TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-20. GIVEN A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, EXPECTING A SLOW
STRENGTHENING IN STORM INTENSITY ALONG THE GUST FRONT. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED RISK FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE GUSTS (50-60 MPH). THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
SPATIAL EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE RISK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL AND TARGETED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS.
..SMITH/GUYER.. 05/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 32259226 32489187 32268965 31978924 31368923 30928973
31009263 31169280 32259226
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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