700
ACUS03 KWNS 261926
SWODY3
SPC AC 261925
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
OF NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS, THOUGH THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE, WITH SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. MULTIPLE PRIOR DAYS OF CONVECTION FROM TX TO GA INTRODUCES
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, GIVEN THE LIKELY INFLUENCES OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ON THE RICHER MOISTURE/BUOYANCY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS WITH
SOME WIND-DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES/MRGL.
SUCCESSIVE OUTFLOW AND UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RELATIVELY FAR WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND MODEST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND SOUTHWEST TX. STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES, MLCAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT HODOGRAPH
LENGTH (EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT) WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE GUSTS.
..THOMPSON.. 05/26/2025
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