667
ACUS11 KWNS 262046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262046
ALZ000-262215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262046Z - 262215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
UNCERTAIN. AT LEAST A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL SPREAD INTO
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A LINEAR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
I-20 IN EAST-CENTRAL MS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MS, AND IT IS MOVING
EAST AROUND 35 MPH. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS HAS WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH THE 850-300 MB MEAN WIND IS MODERATE IN
STRENGTH, STEEPENED 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES (7-8 DEG C/KM) AMIDST A HIGH
PW AIRMASS (APPROACHING 2 INCHES) WILL FAVOR SPORADIC SURGES WITH
THE LINEAR BAND AND MORE INTENSE WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. AS A
RESULT, AT LEAST LOCALIZED/ISOLATED 50-65 MPH GUSTS CAPABLE OF WIND
DAMAGE ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #330. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF DAMAGING GUSTS IS UNCERTAIN AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED REGARDING THE NEED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..SMITH/GUYER.. 05/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31898844 32648833 32688695 32518650 32028639 31248678
30888838 31898844
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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