105
ACUS11 KWNS 270016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270016
TXZ000-270145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 331...
VALID 270016Z - 270145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 331 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY TO THE EAST OF WW 331.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT. LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND SWATHS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE
MORE LIKELY WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT.
DISCUSSION...A MESSY/COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION CONTINUES WITHIN
WW 331. AN INTENSE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL PERSISTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE BROADER CENTRAL TX CONVECTIVE PLUME. SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT ON INCREASING MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO LATE
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ATOP BOTH
A LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
MATAGORDA BAY AND THE PRIMARY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH TPL TO JUST SOUTH OF LFK. GREATEST SEVERE
WIND AND TORNADO OR TWO POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE MORE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND
SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND BETWEEN THAT CORRIDOR TO THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 05/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 30729812 31119802 31369735 31379644 31119616 30839593
30479589 29659610 28939681 28879720 29009782 29319882
29859883 30729812
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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