267
ACUS11 KWNS 270306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270306
OKZ000-270430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270306Z - 270430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A PAIR OF WELL-ESTABLISHED SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE
A LARGE HAIL THREAT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT, BEFORE LIKELY SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THAT STARTED PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL OVER ROGER MILLS COUNTY HAS NOW MOVED INTO
CUSTER COUNTY, WITH A SEPARATE STRONG SUPERCELL OVER DEWEY COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS SEEMINGLY OVERACHIEVED RELATIVE TO THE ANTICIPATED
ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF AN MCV NOW IN SOUTHERN KS. GIVEN HOW
WELL-ESTABLISHED THIS PAIR OF SUPERCELLS HAS BECOME, THE MOIST
LOW-LEVELS SAMPLED IN THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT MLCIN WILL
REMAIN SLOW TO INCREASE. BUT DECREASING MLCAPE WITHIN THE WEAK
BUOYANCY RANGE (BELOW 1000 J/KG) AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT DO SUGGEST THAT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 05/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 36019886 35839813 35519784 34979797 34789838 34829867
34979905 35309938 35589947 36019886
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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