417
ACUS48 KWNS 270859
SWOD48
SPC AC 270858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
..DISCUSSION
..FRIDAY/DAY 4 TO SUNDAY/DAY 6
ON FRIDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS, WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA, AS NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT.
..MONDAY/DAY 7 AND TUESDAY/ DAY 8
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S., WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY, MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A
SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP, PREDICTABILITY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
..BROYLES.. 05/27/2025
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