386
ACUS11 KWNS 271709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271708
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-271845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271708Z - 271845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS IN ALABAMA HAS STARTED TO STRENGTHEN. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS HAVE BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
EAST OF AN ONGOING LINE OF STORMS IN ALABAMA. WITHIN THIS REGION,
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS PERMITTED HEATING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY MID-DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS LINE WITH RECENT
LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATING A STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE
PAST 30 MINUTES.
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION, INDICATED BY LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDCOVER ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AHEAD OF THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL/MCV WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW (~35
KNOTS) IS APPARENT FROM THE KHDC VWP, INDICATING THAT SOME STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND SUPPORT GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL, THE WARM/MOIST PROFILE AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
THE HAIL THREAT WITH WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS AND A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY
EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WHICH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE.
COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL LIKELY REPRESENT THE
NORTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY MAINTAINING THE RELATIVE LOCATION OF THIS
COLDER AIR THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW COUNTIES INTO THE COLDER AIR, BUT AS THE COLDER AIR
DEEPENS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT, THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DISSIPATE.
..BENTLEY/GUYER.. 05/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 33608639 33878492 33738390 33258243 32748231 32188249
31818303 30868432 30358617 30688789 31278804 32638681
33608639
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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