497
ACUS03 KWNS 271922
SWODY3
SPC AC 271922
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
..SYNOPSIS
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THURSDAY AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MID MO VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AR/OK/TX IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE DIGGING MIDLEVEL TROUGH, AND THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE AND TIMING
ARE IN QUESTION ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH SUGGESTS LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE APPROPRIATE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT (MODERATE-LARGE BUOYANCY) AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT, HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME
WARRANTED FOR SOME PART OF THE 5%/MRGL AREA (ESPECIALLY ACROSS TX).
FARTHER EAST, LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
REMNANT MCV AND AN ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST (AL TO GA) DURING THE DAY. PREDICTABILITY IS MODEST AT
BEST, SO WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITIES/MRGL IN THIS UPDATE.
..THOMPSON.. 05/27/2025
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