812
ACUS01 KWNS 280518
SWODY1
SPC AC 280516
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES....
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ACROSS
THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST.
..CO/KS/OK
EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND INTO CO/KS BY EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT, LEADING TO A CORRIDOR OF
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FROM NORTHEAST CO ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN
OK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST CO BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS, AND BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL THROUGH THE EVENING INTO A BOWING
LINE, WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. AN UPGRADE TO ENH
MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD
SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
..CENTRAL TX
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL
MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NM. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX. RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
..SOUTHWEST TX
DIURNAL HEATING AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX. A
FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED.
..HART/THORNTON.. 05/28/2025
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