827
ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES, AND IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
..CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON
FRIDAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT MLCAPE COULD PEAK IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CAROLINAS. NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS, 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE, SUGGESTING THAT
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST.
..GULF COAST STATES
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME STEEP IN SOME AREAS. FOR THIS
REASON, A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
DESTABILIZE THE MOST. ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE DURING
THE EVENING, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
..BROYLES.. 05/28/2025
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