500
ACUS11 KWNS 280837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280837
TXZ000-281000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 280837Z - 281000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH A CLUSTER OF
STRONG STORMS MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL TX.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED TO THE WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR/GREATER SAN ANTONIO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AMID 40
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWS SOME
INDICATION OF STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLUSTER,
THOUGH KERV ONLY GUSTED TO AROUND 27KT AS THE CORE OF THESE STRONGER
VELOCITY SIGNATURES PASSED JUST SOUTH OF THE OBSERVATION SITE.
NEVERTHELESS, SOME STRONG GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE CLUSTER APPROACHED THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
GIVEN A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING, AND THE ABSENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET, IT IS UNCLEAR HOW LONG THIS CLUSTER MAY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY. OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
..LEITMAN/GLEASON.. 05/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
LAT...LON 30219904 30139789 29799747 29529741 29259771 29149822
29249874 29349920 29549939 30219904
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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