864
ACUS48 KWNS 280901
SWOD48
SPC AC 280900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
..DISCUSSION
..SATURDAY/DAY 4 AND SUNDAY/DAY 5
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST BE PARTICULARLY STRONG HEAD OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER,
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ON SATURDAY IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS, AND ON SUNDAY
FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL.
..MONDAY/DAY 6 TO WEDNESDAY/DAY 8
DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK ACROSS
MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO, NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
DURING THE MID WEEK, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE GREAT PLAINS. FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING ANY POTENTIAL SCENARIO. IF MODEL RUNS
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AND SHOW MORE AGREEMENT AMONG SOLUTIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS, A 15 PERCENT AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK.
..BROYLES.. 05/28/2025
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