210
ACUS11 KWNS 281721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281720
TXZ000-281915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281720Z - 281915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN BROWN
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS INSTABILITY IS TOO WEAK TO
SUPPORT STRONGER CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGER INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN MORE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED
WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) WILL RESULT IN
SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH A PRIMARY LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE MCV
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MCV, BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE, EXPECT A FEW
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP.
12Z CAM GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A FEW STORMS WITHIN THIS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON WATCH NECESSITY IN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND IF
MORE THAN AN ISOLATED THREAT APPEARS LIKELY, A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY. IN ADDITION, IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS DEVELOP, SOME
THREAT FOR UPSCALE GROWTH AND AN INCREASING WIND THREAT COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
..BENTLEY/GUYER.. 05/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30409900 30619942 31249999 32260075 33140089 33380016
33109905 32539814 32329784 30999742 30249839 30409900
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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