654
ACUS11 KWNS 281754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281753
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-282030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN KANSAS...THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 281753Z - 282030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS,
INCLUDING TORNADOES, WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. STRONG
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MATURATION INTO SUPERCELLS AND BOWING CONVECTIVE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, WHERE LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS FROM
THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
STREAMWISE VORTICITY.
..HALBERT/GUYER.. 05/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35810450 36200496 36770476 37220471 37820470 38670477
39760484 40510479 40620466 40750406 40730298 40450194
40060128 38920071 38170069 37470086 36670114 36070188
35880254 35670385 35770430 35810450
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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