302
ACUS11 KWNS 282039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282038
TXZ000-282215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR WEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 282038Z - 282215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS INDICATED THAT INHIBITION HAS
MOSTLY ERODED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOME TOWERS HAVE
STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAIN VICINITY. AS
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT AT LEAST ONE STORM,
POTENTIALLY A FEW STORMS, TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS WHICH COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT. LARGE
HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS QUICKLY WEAKENING
AFTER PEAK HEATING.
IF A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP WITH A THREAT WHICH MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY, BUT
MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE AND A SHORT DURATION THREAT SEEMS
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY/GUYER.. 05/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29950426 31090447 31600397 31580272 31200236 29960224
29750273 29780386 29950426
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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