556
ACUS01 KWNS 290102
SWODY1
SPC AC 290100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
CO...NORTHEAST NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SOUTHERN KS...WESTERN/CENTRAL
OK...AND ALSO FOR CENTRAL TX...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE VICINITY
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST
CO/SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, AIDED BY A DEEPENING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET.
MODERATE BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN THE SHORT-TERM, ONGOING SUPERCELLS
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH COULD
POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT AS STORMS MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A LARGER PORTION OF SOUTHERN KS AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL OK. SEE MCD 1031 AND 1032 FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..CENTRAL TX INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED BUT INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAVE MOVED ACROSS
CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING. EVENTUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS MLCINH
BEGINS TO NOCTURNALLY INCREASE, BUT THE ONGOING CELLS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH DUSK AS THE MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A THREAT OF LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TX, ASIDE FROM ONE CELL IN THE TX BIG BEND REGION. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING ALONG AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE
TRANS-PECOS. ANY STORM THAT CAN MATURE WITHIN THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD POSE A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
..SOUTHEAST
AN ONGOING NORTHWARD-MOVING BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NORTHERN LA INTO
SOUTHERN MS/AL IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS
EVENING, BUT LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS COULD STILL ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, AS AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
..DEAN.. 05/29/2025
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