593
ACUS03 KWNS 290721
SWODY3
SPC AC 290719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
..NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA/MID-ATLANTIC
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. IN SPITE OF DRY ADVECTION,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION BY
MIDDAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
..RIO GRANDE VALLEY
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHWESTWARD ALONG AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page