540
ACUS01 KWNS 291632
SWODY1
SPC AC 291630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS. RELATIVELY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH 60S DEG F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE UP TO 2500-3000 J/KG BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND 35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN MODEST WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM, WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE AND CLUSTERING POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS
SHOWS INITIALLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS SOME TORNADO RISK EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE LIFE CYCLE ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPSCALE GROWTH/CLUSTERING IS EXPECTED AND DEPICTED IN
SEVERAL RECENT CAMS, SUGGESTIVE OF A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE GUSTS
(PERHAPS LOCALLY IN THE 70-85 MPH RANGE) MAINLY THIS EVENING.
FARTHER EAST, MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TX.
HOWEVER, MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE RATON MESA
VICINITY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRONGEST CORES MAY POSE A THREAT
OF ISOLATED HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
..SOUTHEAST
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL/FL
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GA. THIS ACTIVITY IS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
AN EASTWARD-MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND SOME CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING THIS MORNING
WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN AL. FARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST, STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THROUGH MIDDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 80S/LOWER 90S DEG F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG IS FORECAST OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALREADY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAY EITHER PERSIST FROM THE
ONGOING MORNING ACTIVITY, OR INITIATE WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF GA INTO SC. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER WEAK, BUT SOME STRENGTHENING OF WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT ONE OR MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL.
..OZARKS INTO THE MID-SOUTH
SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO INTO THE MID-SOUTH, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE
CYCLONE. RELATIVELY MODEST HEATING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY
TEND TO LIMIT BUOYANCY, BUT ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE
EXPANDED LOW-SEVERE PROBABILITIES FARTHER EAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KY
AND MIDDLE TN WHERE RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL-SEVERE HAZARDS.
..SMITH/KARSTENS.. 05/29/2025
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