596
FNUS22 KWNS 291920
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/SOUTHERN
PLAINS SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50-0.70") WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TOWARDS THE SAN MATEO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF
ALBUQUERQUE WHERE DRY FUELS MAKE IGNITION MORE LIKELY. PROBABILITY
OF WETTING RAINS >0.10" FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
TOWARDS FAR WESTERN TEXAS WHERE A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE SHOULD
EXIST FRIDAY.
..WILLIAMS.. 05/29/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1232 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
STEADY MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD, AS FAR AS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS NEW MEXICO D1/THURS INTO D2/FRI.
THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER,
AT LEAST SOME MIX OF DRY/WET THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAT <0.10" OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST PLACES. FUELS
IN THESE REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 75HT-90TH PERCENTILE FOR DRYNESS AND
WOULD SUPPORT NEW IGNITIONS. AS SUCH, AN AREA OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WAS MAINTAINED AND EXPANDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK
TO INCLUDE AREAS OF ARIZONA JUST EAST OF THE PINALENO MOUNTAINS AND
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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