591
FNUS21 KWNS 301600
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VALID 301700Z - 311200Z
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME
EXPANSION OF THE ISOLATED DRY-THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA WARRANTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. MID-MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EMERGING OVER CENTRAL AZ/NM. THIS
WILL AID IN MID-LEVEL ASCENT/COOLING THROUGH THE DAY, AND MAY
FACILITATE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY
DEPICTED BY OLDER GUIDANCE (MORE RECENT SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRENDING TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE). DEEP MIXING
WITHIN AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SAMPLED BY 12 UTC ABQ/EPZ
SOUNDINGS) AND STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD MODULATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER A REGION WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS ABOVE
THE 80TH PERCENTILE).
..MONTANA
LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY EMERGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TO EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
20-35% RANGE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING A FEW
HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, FUEL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT OVERLY REPCETIVE, WHICH SHOULD MODULATE THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
..MOORE.. 05/30/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1141 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE NEAR BAJA CREATING A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN TODAY. WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE, STRONG WINDS OVER THE DRIEST FUELS--CURRENTLY IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST--WILL NOT BE LIKELY. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE WILL DRAW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL
PROMOTE POTENTIALLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK
AND SOME MIX OF WET/DRY STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. VERY DRY FUELS WILL
SUPPORT IGNITIONS WHERE RAINFALL IS MINIMAL.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page