250
ACUS03 KWNS 301927
SWODY3
SPC AC 301926
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AND IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
..SYNOPSIS
BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS FL EXTENDING WEST INTO TX. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX DURING THE DAY, POTENTIALLY INFLUENCED BY PRIOR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A CONTINUATION OF MORNING CONVECTION OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOWS, WITH
LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR A STORM
CLUSTER WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL SLGT RISK, BUT WILL DEFER TO LATER UPDATES IN
RESPONSE TO MORE LIMITED PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
OTHERWISE, A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIKELY STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN MT/NORTHEAST ID. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED,
BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS, AS WELL AS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ENTRAINED INTO AN EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH, BUT
POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
FL, ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK, STALLED FRONT. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER FL, AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES (DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS) IN
LATER UPDATES.
..THOMPSON.. 05/30/2025
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