235
ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
MONDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A BROADER
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL STATES FROM MINNESOTA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
..CENTRAL STATES
A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME ON MONDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE, OUTSIDE
OF THE 00Z GFS, HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE D2 IN
RESPONSE TO A LEADING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND SURFACE CYCLONE, WITH
THE LATTER TRACKING EAST OVER NORTHERN ON ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH NORTHERN MN TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE PRIMARY
NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, BUT MAY
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE MN PORTION OF THE FRONT TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. MODERATE TO LARGE BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED WELL
SOUTH FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO
NE. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE A MIX OF SCATTERED
SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE. MOST PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE NE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT IS MORE NEBULOUS, ESPECIALLY BEYOND PEAK
HEATING. OVERALL, GENERALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WITH WEAKNESS
IN MUCH OF THE HODOGRAPH ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, RENDERS
BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 05/31/2025
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