878
ACUS48 KWNS 310856
SWOD48
SPC AC 310854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..DISCUSSION
SOMEWHAT GREATER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SWATH OF SEVERE ON D4/TUESDAY. THIS APPEARS
FOCUSED FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST FROM MIDDAY
INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS LESS AMPLIFIED AFTER D4,
WITH NEBULOUS SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN STATES.
..D4/TUESDAY
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MAY PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY
BY LATE TUESDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE WAVE OVER KS MAY SIMILARLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO AT LEAST WI. EXTENSIVE CONVECTION MAY
BE ONGOING AT 12Z WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
UPPER-FLOW REGIME THAT IS COUPLED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET. AMID
RELATIVELY WARM 500-MB TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ATTENDANT TO THE SOUTHERN-STREAM IMPULSE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK IN THE WARM-MOIST SECTOR. WHERE APPRECIABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF MORNING CONVECTION,
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
..D5-8/WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PERVASIVE, SUGGESTING THAT ROBUST
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LARGELY DRIVE DAILY BOUTS OF SEEMINGLY
LOWER-PROBABILITY SEVERE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE ZONAL
MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY EVOLVE TOWARDS D7/FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND A
RETURN OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
..GRAMS.. 05/31/2025
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