815
ACUS01 KWNS 010601
SWODY1
SPC AC 010559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. MORE ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
..CENTRAL/EASTERN TX
IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WHICH COULD POSE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS. GUIDANCE VARIES
REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF MORNING CONVECTION, LEADING
TO SOME SPREAD REGARDING THE ZONE OF ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL LATER
IN THE DAY. ONE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO PERSIST AND REINTENSIFY
THROUGH THE DAY, AS CONVECTION IMPINGES ON AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANOTHER SCENARIO IS FOR MORNING
CONVECTION TO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING OR STATIONARY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SOME COMBINATION OF THESE SCENARIOS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
IF MORNING CONVECTION WEAKENS OR IS NOT OVERLY EXTENSIVE, THEN THE
AFTERNOON PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY, WITH MODERATE MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY IN A SCENARIO WHERE SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH A MODIFYING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..TN TO THE CAROLINAS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EAST-CENTRAL MO
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. MODESTLY FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR (GENERALLY
25-30 KT) MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ANY LONGER-LIVED CLUSTERS COULD
POSE A MORE CONCENTRATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS OF ANY SUCH THREAT IS CURRENTLY LOW.
..EASTERN ID/SOUTHWEST MT/NORTHWEST WY
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING. WEAK
TO LOCALLY MODERATE BUOYANCY AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. DEPENDING ON THE
EXTENT OF DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION, A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF
SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE WITH THE BROADER MARGINAL RISK
AREA.
..SOUTH FL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA BY THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION BEFORE STORMS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FL THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION AND A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND
HAIL.
..EASTERN CO/NM
SCATTERED STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN CO/NM. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. INITIAL
STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE
GUSTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP BY EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS.
..SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AZ
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CA/AZ LATER TODAY. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION, BUT RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. IF POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONGER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CAN DEVELOP, THEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..GREAT BASIN
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM
PARTS OF NV INTO WESTERN UT. BUOYANCY AND SHEAR ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK, AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT LOCALIZED
STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS REGIME INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
..DEAN/WENDT.. 06/01/2025
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