499
ACUS01 KWNS 021955
SWODY1
SPC AC 021953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2025
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SEVERE GUSTS 60-75 MPH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD AND LOCALIZED GUSTS 75-90 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
..20 UTC UPDATE
THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. FOR A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE SEVERE RISK, SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.
..MINNESOTA
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED MCV TRAVERSING MN HAS
PERSISTED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED, AND HAS YIELDED A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
DOWNSTREAM BUOYANCY IS LIMITED (SBCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG), A
CORRIDOR OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXISTS IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLUSTER. THESE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A SEVERE WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE MCV MIGRATES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION. 15% WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DOWNSTREAM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
CONCERN IN CONJUNCTION WITH RECENTLY ISSUED WW #354.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE ACROSS WESTERN TX AND
INTO PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. A PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY EVIDENT IN
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY IS PROPAGATING DUE EASTWARD INTO AN
INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AIR MASS, WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE A STEADY
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN 18 UTC AMA
SOUNDING SAMPLED VERY BUOYANT CONDITIONS (SBCAPE OF AROUND 3000
J/KG) WITH A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE WIND PROFILES ARE
CURRENTLY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD
PROMOTE COLD-POOL DRIVEN STORM PROPAGATION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
UNTIL MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND FAVORS INCREASING
ORGANIZATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, SOUTHWEST KS, AND NORTHWEST OK.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM DETAILS SEE MCD #1075.
..FLORIDA
PERSISTENT CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA WITH AN NOTABLE COLD POOL ALONG THE FL WEST COAST. RISK
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS, THOUGH
20-30 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWPS SUGGESTS THAT
SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WITHIN ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
GREATER MIAMI, FL AREA. WHILE REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
MUTED UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY, TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S
COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE ALONG FLORIDA'S EAST COAST MAY
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (AS
HINTED BY RECENT CAM GUIDANCE).
..MOORE.. 06/02/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1128 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2025/
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO KS
VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER AZ, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
NM THIS EVENING AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK. FARTHER
EAST, A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OK IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE (UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS) PER LATE MORNING ANALYSIS.
THE LEADING BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
DISTURBANCE IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NM SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST TX, AS INDICATED BY MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.
STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS.
VERY STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO VERY STRONG BUOYANCY
(1000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE) AND ERODING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, WILL
FAVOR SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN
PART OF THE MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR. RELATIVELY MODEST MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. AS STORM OUTFLOW
BEGINS TO CONGEAL AND AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS (PW RISING FROM 1 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES), A PROPENSITY
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW WILL PEAK BY EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST EXPERIENCE IN THE COMBINATION OF PW, BUOYANCY, SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR MULTICELLS, AND HIGH AGREEMENT IN A LINEAR STORM MODE, ALL
STRONGLY SUGGEST SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. GUSTS
60-75 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGER SURGES OF OUTFLOW AND
LOCALIZED PEAK GUSTS 75-90 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE UPGRADED TO
30-PERCENT SIGNIFICANT WIND DUE TO CONFIDENCE IN INTENSE OUTFLOW.
CAMS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OK AND INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL KS BEFORE WEAKENING LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO MN
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS
MT AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG HEATING IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WHERE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
AIDED BY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MN WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN
PLACE. DEWPOINTS (AND OVERALL BUOYANCY) WILL BE LOWER HERE THAN
AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
STRENGTH AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN ANAFRONTAL STORM CHARACTER. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST, ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST WY/NE PANHANDLE WITH INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AS
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG
BUOYANCY WILL FAVOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS, BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST. THIS WEAKER SHEAR COUPLED WITH LINEAR FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO A PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR MODE. AS A
RESULT, SOME SUPERCELL THREAT IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION BUT, STORM MERGERS AND POTENTIAL CLUSTERING/LINE SEGMENTS
FAVOR A HAIL RISK TRANSITIONING RATHER QUICKLY TO MORE WIND. SOME
CONTINUATION OF A SEVERE THREAT (MAINLY WIND) MAY PERSIST LATE INTO
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE, NEAR THE TERMINUS OF A
45-KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ.
..SOUTH FL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF, WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CORES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY THE EARLY
EVENING.
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