077
ACUS01 KWNS 051249
SWODY1
SPC AC 051247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2025
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
SOUTHEAST NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CO
INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE....
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO WEST TEXAS. A FEW TORNADOES, LARGE TO
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL, AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A MODEST MCS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, MOVING FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST TX. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MORE OF NORTH TX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AMID
DAYTIME HEATING, SUGGESTING THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO STRENGTHEN ONCE HEATING COMMENCES IN EARNEST. HOWEVER, VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST, LIKELY LIMITING THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND KEEPING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW.
A GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EARLY MORNING MCS. THIS OUTFLOW
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE MCS WESTWARD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHEAST NM. SOME CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IT STALLS. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO THEN MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS
AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS DEPENDS
ON THE COVERAGE OF ANY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS TO ITS NORTH.
GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THAT EVOLUTION, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SO, THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
ROBUST CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MID 80S-LOWER 90S, WEST AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW.
STRONG BUOYANCY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BENEATH THE ENHANCED WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LONG
HODOGRAPHS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THESE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL,
SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES. HAIL PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE HIGHEST
SUPERCELL COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED. THERE COULD BE A CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, BUT UNCERTAINTY
ON ITS LOCATION PRECLUDES INTRODUCING ANY HIGH PROBABILITIES WITH
THIS OUTLOOK.
A DISCRETE CELL OR TWO COULD ALSO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW ALONG
A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM. BUOYANCY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH, BUT SIMILAR KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL
STILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO KS AND OK
A SECOND SEVERE AREA IS POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DOWNSTREAM INTO KS AND OK. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, CONTRIBUTING TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ITS MOVEMENT
OFF THE TERRAIN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. NORTHWARD-ADVECTING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT
FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHERN KS. THE STORMS COMING OFF THE
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY, WITH IN-SITU
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WITH THE
INTERACTIONS CONTRIBUTING TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF
STORMS THAT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE KS/OK. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EARLY, MORE DISCRETE STORMS BEFORE
UPSCALE GROWTH AND A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.
..MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST
HIGH-PW AIRMASS CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL READILY DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, JUXTAPOSED
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, BUT SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED
WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS DOES EXIST.
..MOSIER/BROYLES.. 06/05/2025
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