901
ACUS01 KWNS 060101
SWODY1
SPC AC 060059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2025
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES (SOME POSSIBLY STRONG),
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
SEVERE GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST.
..01Z UPDATE
EARLY-EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
CRESTING AN ELONGATED SOUTHERN-U.S. RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN CO/NORTHEAST NM AND WILL
APPROACH THE MO OZARK REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PARTLY IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE, LLJ SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
KS. AS A RESULT, A CORRIDOR OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND THIS SHOULD
ENCOURAGE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM AMA EXHIBITED AROUND 3000 J/KG SBCAPE WITH AROUND 50KT
0-6KM SHEAR AND MINIMAL CINH. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM-ADVECTION CORRIDOR AND READILY CONVECT AS THE
LLJ INCREASES.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS PERSISTS ACROSS THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF EARLY-DAY RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY
LAYER. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO AID THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PROPAGATES
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST TX.
VERY LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES PERSISTS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IF SUPERCELL MERGERS EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THEN
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE COMMON LATER THIS EVENING.
..NORTHEAST
A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA INTO SOUTHERN NY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK MCV MAY BE EVIDENT OVER TIOGA
COUNTY PA, AND THIS MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
INTO DELAWARE COUNTY NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DARROW.. 06/06/2025
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