060
ACUS03 KWNS 080731
SWODY3
SPC AC 080730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN STATES AND MT...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING ALONG PARTS OF THE EAST COAST, FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTH LOUISIANA, AND ALONG THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER ON/QC INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
WILL DAMPEN OVER THE CONUS PORTION WITH WEAKLY RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS. MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES/MCVS MAY DRIFT EAST IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHWEST GULF
COAST. A LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD REACH NORTHERN CA
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
..EAST COAST
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PERIOD AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. APPRECIABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED SOUTH
OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NORTH. WHERE THERE MAY BE LINGERING MCV
FLOW ENHANCEMENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD MARGINALIZE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
DECREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD FOSTER A MORE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS.
..SOUTHEAST NM TO SOUTH LA
RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVERLAPPING THE GENERALLY
WEST/EAST-ORIENTED PORTION OF PRIOR LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW INTRUSION ON
D1, MAY FOSTER SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL/WIND ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HINTS AT GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
FROM SOUTHEAST NM INTO THE TRANS-PECOS AND SEPARATELY FROM SOUTHEAST
TX TO SOUTH LA.
..LEE OF THE MT ROCKIES
AS MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH MODERATE SPEED
SHEAR, A COUPLE LOWER-END/HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MT. WEAK BUOYANCY
SUGGESTS THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS SHOULD
BE THE MAIN THREATS.
..GRAMS.. 06/08/2025
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