724
ACUS03 KWNS 081926
SWODY3
SPC AC 081924
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST
COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING ALONG PARTS OF THE EAST COAST, FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTH LOUISIANA, AND ALONG THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES.
..EAST COAST
UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS
TROUGHING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE JUST AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE, WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC.
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIOD AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE HIGHER BUOYANCY,
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. EVEN SO, THERE
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH OVERLAP FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND EASTERN NC. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY RISK.
...LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY...
A COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM
WEST-CENTRAL LA TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY ALSO BE OVER CENTRAL
TX, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS HIGH AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. THE PRESENCE OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM POTENTIALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMPLICATES THE OVERALL FORECAST, SINCE BOTH FEATURES COULD
PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HOWEVER,
MESOSCALE NATURE OF THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS THEIR INTERACTIONS
LIMITS PREDICTABILITY. AT THIS POINT, THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
AND CONDITIONS SUGGEST SOME WOULD BE STRONG/SEVERE. HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS AS PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES.
..SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX
STRONG HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MODERATE/STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL HELP OFFSET LOW-LEVEL MIXING, ALLOWING FOR DEWPOINTS
TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. RESULTING COMBINATION OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LATE
AFTERNOON AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG BUOYANCY. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION, WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
INITIALLY, WITH SOME WIND GUST THREAT AS WELL. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN, WHICH MERITS KEEPING LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS
OUTLOOK.
..LEE OF THE MT ROCKIES
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH
THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WESTERLY FLOW, AUGMENTING OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT AND HELPING TO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODERATE SPEED SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A COUPLE
LOWER-END/HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MT. WEAK BUOYANCY
SUGGESTS THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS SHOULD
BE THE MAIN THREATS.
..MOSIER.. 06/08/2025
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