987
ACUS03 KWNS 090731
SWODY3
SPC AC 090730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON JUN 09 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THE CORN BELT, AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
..NORTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE WY ROCKIES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. ITS
ATTENDANT BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
CONFINED, LIKELY CENTERED ON SOUTHEAST ID/NORTHERN UT DURING LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MODEST,
CONTRIBUTING TO MAINLY WEAK BUOYANCY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD REGION OF AT
LEAST LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE WIND/HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF ID/MT/UT/WY.
..CORN BELT
A WEST/EAST-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND SURFACE RIDGING NOSES SOUTH ACROSS MN
IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ON. A CONFINED
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, BUT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN IN THE COOLER/DRIER STABLE AIR MASS
TO THE NORTH. MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL SIMILARLY HAVE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, STRONGER NORTH AND WEAKER SOUTH. OVERALL SETUP
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITHIN A CONFINED CORRIDOR
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TX
A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLS ON WEDNESDAY. A BELT OF MODESTLY ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF IT WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES, AND
BEHIND IT WITH NORTHWESTERLIES. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION HAS LARGE
SPREAD ACROSS GUIDANCE AND OVERALL APPEARS NEBULOUS GIVEN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HAVE DELINEATED A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF TX WHERE POCKETS OF
GREATER DESTABILIZATION, COINCIDENT WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
MAY BE REALIZED.
..GRAMS.. 06/09/2025
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