151
ACUS03 KWNS 091928
SWODY3
SPC AC 091927
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...PARTS OF TEXAS...AND THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THE CORN BELT, AND TEXAS.
..NORTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON
WEDNESDAY, REACHING WYOMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BELT OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH AROUND PEAK HEATING. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN MODEST, CONTRIBUTING TO MAINLY WEAK BUOYANCY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD REGION OF
AT LEAST LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF
IDAHO/UTAH INTO MONTANA/WYOMING.
..UPPER MIDWEST/CORN BELT
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW-AMPLITUDE
WESTERLIES, A WEST/EAST-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. A RELATED AND SOMEWHAT CONFINED
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, BUT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN IN THE COOLER/DRIER STABLE AIR MASS
TO THE NORTH. OVERALL SETUP COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
WITHIN A CONFINED CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS
A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST PERSISTS WITH SOME SEVERE-WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS A WEAK SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS TEXAS, WITH
OTHER UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO TUESDAY'S CONVECTION AND EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF TEXAS WHERE POCKETS
OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION, COINCIDENT WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
MAY BE REALIZED.
..GUYER.. 06/09/2025
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