191
ACUS03 KWNS 100725
SWODY3
SPC AC 100725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
TEXAS AS WELL.
..SYNOPSIS
ON THURSDAY, A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY, WITH 40 TO 50 KT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
SD, SOUTHERN MN AND WI, WITH MID 60S F DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODEST DESTABILIZATION. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
BOUNDARY AND INTO SOUTHERN MN BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, AND PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OK/TX
AREA, WITH A MOIST AIR MASS FROM TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
..NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SCATTERED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY FROM EASTERN ND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN, BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. BY PEAK HEATING, NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NE AND
EASTERN CO. HERE, STRONG HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
VERY STRONG, BUT WILL SUPPORT SLOW-MOVING/RIGHTWARD PROPAGATING
CELLS OR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY, WILL
DEFER ANY POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK TO LATER OUTLOOKS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX WITH MAINLY
LOCALLY STRONG OUTFLOWS AND PERIODIC PULSE HAIL DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY IN THIS WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
..JEWELL.. 06/10/2025
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