603
ACUS48 KWNS 100849
SWOD48
SPC AC 100848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2025
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
..DISCUSSION
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT
SUNDAY/D6, DEPICTING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
NORTHWEST. DURING THAT SAME PERIOD, THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY WITH
WEAKENING TREND.
THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY STRETCH FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AS WEAK BUT BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINTAIN A MOIST PLUME OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO MT AND THE DAKOTAS.
ON FRIDAY/D4, SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER CENTRAL MT,
BENEATH MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD FURTHER IN THE SATURDAY/D5 TO
SUNDAY/D6 TIME FRAME, WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MARGINAL. STILL, DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN MCS PATTERN WITH ATTENDANT
WIND POTENTIAL. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR POTENTIAL CATEGORICAL RISK OUTLINES.
..JEWELL.. 06/10/2025
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