815
ACUS48 KWNS 110839
SWOD48
SPC AC 110838
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..DISCUSSION
FOR SATURDAY/D4 INTO SUNDAY/D5, MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH A GRADUAL FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY/D8, MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY
AFTER THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY FAVOR
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS, FROM MT
INTO EASTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND PERSISTING INTO PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE EVENINGS.
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH 2000-3000+ J/KG MUCAPE
DEVELOPING DAILY. AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, CORRIDORS
OF WIND DAMAGE MAY MATERIALIZE. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW THIS FAR OUT,
BUT CATEGORICAL RISK UPGRADES APPEAR LIKELY AS THESE PERIODS GET
CLOSER IN TIME. THE PRIMARY RISK APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
SPORADIC LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.
..JEWELL.. 06/11/2025
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